People like getting pocket pairs, but they like complaining when they get cracked almost as much. But should they be surprised? No. This table shows that even with a strong pair like queens, there will be higher cards on the flop close to half the time. When an overcard falls, pocket pairs are very vulnerable. If your hole cards are as low as eights, there is only about a 1 in 10 chance they will be an overpair after the flop. And with two cards still to come, it is very unlikely for a medium pair to stand up. This means that medium and low pairs very rarely win without improvement -- too rarely to chase. You play them in hopes of flopping a set, and dump them quick if you do not. It also means that if your pair is still high after the flop, you want to bet hard before something bigger comes along. Bet pairs fast so that 1) opponents fold, or 2), they pay so much to draw that you come out ahead in the long run.
| Pairs are very vulnerable to overcards. |
Even aces should almost always be pushed, not sandbagged -- lots of bad things happen to pairs besides meeting bigger pairs. Much of the money in poker comes from folks who call with draws that are worth something, but not quite enough. Similarly, when the shoe is on the other foot and you hold overcards, it is often not worth it to draw to them. Usually you do not want to draw to overcards against a single opponent's low pair, unless you think they are bluffing, or there is a lot in the pot (see pot odds). If you suspect a bluff, then raise, not call. You want them to know their bluff has been spotted so they fold.
Holdem Odds Book, Mike Petriv. Master holdem probability, calculate odds.
